Looking at the past years, a reasonable sea freight rate for a full container (FCL) from Asia to Europe has been somewhere between 1.500 – 2.000 USD. During the pandemic, rates were increasing to peaks of 8.000 – 10.000 USD. Closed ports and absense workers due to quarantene resulted in interruptions in the shipping schedules and less shipping space available = higher shipping cost.
After the pandemic the supply chain recovered and towards the end of 2023 ocean freight rates went down below the 2.000 USD mark again.
Supply Chain interruptions and low stock levels
However, in January 2024 the cost for one full container all of a sudden went up to 3.300 USD. This was mostly caused by the Houthi attacks in the Red Sea. Shipping companies started to avoid the Suez Canal and vessels were redirected around Africa. The first attacks happened at a time where many European companies had a low stock level. As inventory planners experienced huge interruptions in the supply chain during the pandemic, they then decided to ship more goods to avoid getting out of stock.
This sudden extra demand for shipping space is negotiated on the spot market, which puts high pressure on freight rates.
More flexibility means more price fluctuation
In general, companies nowadays want to be more flexible in their purchasing decisions. Only a few fix their demand for 6 months or even a year, which has been general practice 5-10 years ago. This desire for more flexibility leads to more fluctuating market prices as shipping companies cannot plan and compete against each other in advance.
Source for the freight rates: Average monthly cost for 20’ FCL general cargo Shanghai – Rotterdam invoiced to Petrex by various shipping lines
